Inspire

Paul Saffo on Effective Forecasting

Below one of my favorite presentations from the LongNow Foundation on Fora.tv. Paul Saffo - one of the most experienced and high-impact forecasters around the world - talks about tips for effective forecasting, the evolution of the web, robotics, the singularity, climate change, uncertainty, inflection points, the S-curve, the importance of history and psychology. Highly recommended, especially the second half and the Q&A at the end.

A Search Engine for Virtual Worlds by Google and Linden Lab

Search within Virtual Worlds is reaching the next level in post from Technology Review on searching more effectively and socially within Second Life. Tagging is useful but fallable. Long term, objects in virtual worlds will in my view be recognized just like in (Mobile) Augmented Reality.

"In addition to being able to search for objects, residents can now look for information--about hobbies, for example--in each other's profiles. Dzwigalski says she expects that being able to search profile information will improve Second Life's social features.

Before Linden Lab announced its new tool, third-party companies, such as Electric Sheep, were working on their own to improve search in Second Life and other virtual worlds. "The search capability in the worlds has been historically quite basic," says Giff Constable, who leads the Electric Sheep's software business unit. Constable says that his company was sending bots into Second Life to pick up virtual objects and extract data from them in order to compile search results. "The analogy would be to Alta Vista in the early days of the Web, before Google came around and became able to rank things for popularity," Constable says. He adds that his company hopes to take advantage of the new search tool from Linden Lab and will focus on providing additional tools for social networking and e-commerce."

Croquet Video Demonstration

A few years back I wrote a blog post on Croquet, still in its early stages (this link on Croquet). Now we can see more clearly how it works.

Event Update: Second Mobile Monday Amsterdam and PICNIC07 / Cross Media Week Amsterdam

Just finished my favorite week of this year encompassing two key events : Mobile Monday Amsterdam (MoMoAMS) and PICNIC / PICNIC07 (also known as Cross Media Week Amsterdam). In one word: inspiring ! Both were in the second edition. Below some recommendations and sharing from my side...

Mobile Monday Amsterdam : Mobile Communities
As one of the founders and organisers I found it very thrilling to see around 230 internet, mobile and marketing professionals in one room. Among them many of the leading twitterazi, thinkers and innovators in the Netherlands. The presentation by Tomi T Ahonen - author of Digital Korea and Communities Dominate Brands and leading mobile thinker (Mobile as the 7th Mass Medium) - was impressive. You can find in presentation and video format on our blog : presentation and video by Tomi T Ahonen on Mobile Communities. Some take-away case studies: Kart Writer, Flirtomatic, CyWorld, Any Question Answered (AQA), mobile idle screen tickers and OCR recognition/translation software for mobile phones. The presentation above contains more mobile community examples than the video. It also includes the best mobile internet sources around as recommended by leading thinker Tomi T Ahonen.

PICNIC / PICNIC07

• Presentation of Jyri Engestrom from Jaiku the next stage for social objects/networks/graphs and FaceRank instead of PageRank. FaceRank is based on social proximity (same connections), physical proximity (offline closeness), shared social objects and shared taste/values. Jyri was our first keynote spreaker at Mobile Monday Amsterdam. I was enthrilled by his deepening of his vision in just a few months. Definitely, one of the leading thinkers on social networks in my view.
• PhotoSynth with a incredible zoom-in and zoom-out function with breathtaking beauty and precision. Good to combine with Pixsta and Etsy.com
• Pablos Holman with a terrific and funny talk on different practical hacking stories and cases
• Stefan Sagmeister with an outstanding and highly creative overview of his work, just stunning !
• Alex Steffen with heartfelt stories on the environment and practical and positive case studies helping our world to be a better place. This video from TED by Steffen shows us the way
• Polar Rose for content analysis and searching photos
• Jack Meyers on branding and marketing in virtual worlds. En passant he gave a terrific overview of digital marketing trends worldwide, even on behavioral targeting !
• David Burden with a sublime presentation on the Metaverse Roadmap, Second Life, Augmented Reality, Mirror Worlds/Google Earth and Lifelogging. And how they interact and converge. One second favorite speech of this great week. Thrilling ! Soon you can download his presentation in this link from Platform Virtuele Werelden (PVW) and Jack Meyers prezzie is already here. Staggering to see a live presentation of real-time flight information fed into Second Life from Google Earth, opens up huge possibilities. Also, communicating with your 2L avatar using RSS. David will speak later this year on the Metaverse Summit where I can see him again :-)
• Portable Social Networks: a great workshop with Jyri Engestrom, Marc Canter, Dick Hardt, Biz Stone, Yme Bosma and many other leading thinkers. This was highly content driven (moving/synching/federating social networks, Identity 2.0, microformats, openID, lock-in, business models) and inspiring. I felt like witnessing the leading edge worldwide in social networking brainstorming for yet unknown solutions to complex, urgent and important problems and issues. No final answers as yet while I left the room but it was very special. I really hope these kind of sessions will become more commonplace going forward.
• Dennis Crowley on social networks, tagging the real world with cases like Sharkrunner and Plundr. His prezzie resonated strongly with the one from David Burden integrating real time, real data within games, virtual world and alternate reality games. 
• Nicolas Nova on augmented reality and twittering with your cat :-D  Here you can see his blog
• Adam Greenfield on Urban Landscapes, Gaming and Computing. Mobile Devices + Shared Visualisations+Tagging = Social Object = Jyri's presentation :) Extending the insights of Jyri Engestrom on social objects on location as a social object. More later in my blog and presentations
• eLens from MIT as an insightful example of city guides with personal and social overlays
• The Urban Garden: self organised bus stop with user generated content/tagging, craigslist data, narrowcasting and feeds from ubiquitous computing
• Emotion Maps and Biosensing
• Ben Cerveny on serious gaming, game culture, simulations, multidimensional and visual representations of pervasive and ubiquitous computing combined with augmented reality and GeoWeb. This was my ultimate highlight of this week. Shivers all over ! Complexity Science applied to games and real life. An extension of David Weinbergers' presentation on Everything is Miscallenous integrating different external data sources and categorizations on real life and serious gaming case studies. Here your can see his video from the LIFT Conference this year. His talk on PICNIC07 was different however, in my view even much better.

And of course all the dinners, talks and networking before, in-between en afterwards. Thanks to all who contributed, helped and organized ! See you soon at another inspiring web 2.0/3.0 or mobile event. I am planning to go to the next Mobile Monday Amsterdam (november), LeWeb3 (december) and Metaverse Summit 2007 (december; as a speaker, my first international speech on an inspiring event on lifelogging, augmented reality, web 3.0 and virtual worlds together with a.o. Jamais Cascio and David Burden).

On EveryScape, Google Earth and other Virtual Worlds

This post on Technology Review on EveryScape shows us the evolution of Google Earth and other virtual worlds. Google StreetView is similar to EveryScape but the demonstrations on the website of EveryScape are more spectacular in my view, especially the demo on the MIT building. Happy exploring !

"Everyscape CTO and founder Mok Oh says that the transition works because it simulates people's real-life attitude toward moving from place to place. "Getting there is not what you want," he says. "Being there is what you want." In the future, EveryScape hopes to add more interactive features to help businesses function virtually. Future additions might give users the ability to buy merchandise inside a store with the click of a mouse, or might add a virtual maître d' that could help visitors make dinner reservations at a restaurant and recommend items on the menu."

My Own Presentation on Trends, Digital Media, Marketing, Digital Marketing and Communication: Why Identity, Authenticity and Creativity Will Dominate Our Lives

Here is my presentation on different trends, digital media, web 2.0, web 3.0, marketing, digital marketing and communication/branding. Dutch only as yet, English one will follow soon. Focus is on different technological, environmental, economic and political views (macro perspective) as well as psychological, social and cultural views (micro perspective) and how they intersect, converge and reinforce in many different ways on different levels of analysis.

Key take away: Identity (knowing your intrinsic motivation, purpose and talents), Authenticity (being) and Creativity (doing) as reinforcing themes and values in the emerging and increasingly open space of the next web(s), biotech and ubiquitous computing where the all-encompassing and increasing availability of more granular and personal data of all sorts make the invisible visible and explicit to the benefit of ourselves, our social network, our peers and the market/global brain/humanity as a whole. The essential used to be invisible to the eye....until now and it will bring about massive transformations for the benefit of us all.

Hope you'll enjoy it.

Bruce Sterling on Spimes, the Internet of Things, GeoWeb, RFID, Cradle to Cradle and the Future of the Web

To me Bruce Sterling is one of the most inspiring speakers around. In September, 2007 his latest book will be released called Ascendancies - The Best of Bruce Sterling. I pre-ordered it. Here you can watch his presentation and powerful vision during the LIFT Conference on different important emergent trends like GeoWeb, RFID, Augmented Reality, mobile search, mobile social networks, Internet of Things and sustainability.

Highly recommended as this is in my view one of his best presentations I have seen so far.

Second Earth: What Happens When We Merge Second Life and Google Earth ?

Some readers e-mailed me asking me why I have a tag combining Augmented Reality, UbiComp (Ubiquitous Computing) and GeoWeb. You can see the answer for yourself in this impressive and very important article from Technology Review/MIT about Second Earth.

There is a current media backlash on Second Life. In my view this is shortsighted as can be seen in this article. Just like the Apple Newton failed as the first smart phone and UMTS failed at first as an entry for mobile Internet, Second Life will return in full effect. Innovation comes in cycles, the timing at first might seem 'wrong' but it is about the fundamental drivers below. Same applies to 3D Web, especially combined with Augmented Reality and real-time data integration.

"For people who haven't spent much time in a 3-D world, of course, it's hard to imagine feeling comfortable in either. But such environments may soon be as unavoidable as the Web itself: according to technology research firm Gartner, current trends suggest that 80 percent of active Internet users and Fortune 500 companies will participate in Second Life or some competing virtual world by the end of 2011. And if you take a few months to explore Second Life, as I have done recently, you may begin to understand why many people have begun to think of it as a true second home--and why 3-D worlds are a better medium for many types of communication than the old 2-D Internet.

I asked David Gelernter why we'd need the Metaverse or even mirror worlds, with all the added complications of navigating in three dimensions, when the time-tested format of the flat page has brought us so far on the Web. "That's exactly like asking why we need Web browsers when we already have Gopher, or why we need Fortran when assembly language works perfectly well," he replied.

The current Web might be capable of presenting all the real-time spatial data expected to flow into the Metaverse, Gelernter elaborates, but it wouldn't be pretty. And it would keep us locked into a painfully mixed and inaccurate meta­phor for our information environment--with "pages" that we "mark up" and collect into "sites" that we "go to" by means of a "locator" (the L in URL)--when a much more natural one is available. "The perception of the Web as geography is meaningless--it's a random graph," Gelernter says. "But I know my physical surroundings. I have a general feel for the world. This is what humans are built for, and this is the way they will want to deal with their computers."

Prometeus Media Revolution: Future Vision on Digital Media in 2050: A Critical Analysis

The video below called Prometeus Media Revolution is a thought-provoking vision on the future of digital media until 2050. There are some powerful ideas in here. Here are my comments and musings based on this 5 minute video:

• Be all you can be (Man = God); here I miss the strong interrelationships between digital media, biotech, nanotech and cognitive neuroscience. More importantly, I miss (the importance of) the notion of Augmented Reality/Mixed Reality/Google Earth in this video
• Multiple identities and avatars -> more empathy & more effective communication as well as more self awareness/identity awareness (intrinsic motivation and unique capabilities)
• Sharing of memories and processes -> more productivity and more empathy. We already see this happening right now with partial solutions like Clutzr
• The movie Abre Los Ojos / Vanilla Sky resonates strongly with the latter part in the video (virtual dreaming versus your real life)
• The vid is about the rise of the Gift Economy (Kevin Kelly) and rise of Creative Commons (Lessig)
• Advertisement becomes information (not propaganda), comparison and experience. Here I miss key concepts like attention, relevancy, intention(s), trust and permission based/opt-in. I do really like the idea of Content Creators producing their own advertising/commercials. Powerful but inside-out, not recipient driven !
• I like the idea of Personal Agents delivered by Google due to its link with Web 3.0/Semantic Web
• I also love the idea of reliving history episodes as a participant/active agent -> very high impact and emotional as well as educational value due to its immersiveness
• Furthermore, the Spirit theme resonates with me strongly as a result of my posts on Transformation, Spirituality, Identity and Authenticity (Identity, Authenticity and Creativity as reinforcing forces in Web 2.0 and Web 3.0). However, I wonder if it will be possible in any time to convey and transfer feelings based on lifelogging materials like in Spirit in this video. What I miss is the value and possibility of Dreaming as a source of new virtual worlds and experiences. I believe we don't have to travel outer space as they increase our Places repetoire in virtuality. We have our hands full living out our continuously evolving personal dreams in my view. That is endless
• I don't believe in 'Totems' on the street for printing purposes. This will be personal/mobile/integrated, if any ;-) Papers can get lost, digital stuff can't
• Digital terrestial won't be abandoned due to the implications for the mobile TV revolution (e.g., the impact of technologies like DVB-H and DMB)
• "The media arena will consolidate"; hmmm, yes and no. The Long Tail will always be active, especially since the user generated content craze will intensify and broaden to collective peer production results. With the advent of LIVE mobile webcasting (ComVu, Kyte, Mogulus) we will witness an increase social content consumption relative to the market content consumption. Additionally, I don't buy evil scenarios with 1 company dominating the whole internet (like Google). Why ? Companies with too much power have always been dethroned by the masses as they embrace more benign competitors or develop their own (open source peer produced) alternatives. However, the current huge investments by Google, Yahoo, Microsoft and Amazon data centers point in the direction as shown in the video below.
• I totally agree with the idea of Knowledge Flow instead of statis output(s)

Terrific Presentation on Second Life and Virtual Worlds

Just saw by far the best presentation and discussion I have seen yet on Second Life, virtual worlds and its future. Philip Rosedale - CEO of Second Life - elaborates on a lot of key topics like copyrights, imagination, dreams, identity, transformation and the rise of the immaterial values, Burning Man Festival, 3D interfaces, open source clients, decentralization and emergence, virtual corporation and cooperation, skyscrapers as museum pieces, creativity, community, authenticity, learning, the time accelleration within Second Life and the importance, nature and meaning of the mindset (and its expectations) of virtual worlds in relation to the real world. The Q&A is even better than the presentation of Rosedale, among others with Steward Brand and Kevin Kelly. There are so many stunning insights in this Q&A to mention them all in this spot. What I expect personally is that the rise of 3D printers will increase the importance of virtual world objects in the real world.  Strongly recommended (just like the Metaverse Roadmap Report I mentioned earlier). It is not an accident this presentation from the Long Now Foundation on Fora.tv has 5 (out of 5) stars ;-)