One of my all-time favorite discussions on history versus futurism. Two world class thinkers and authors - Niall Ferguson and Peter Schwartz - are discussing their similarities and differences as well as the foundations, methods, biases and limitations of both disciplines.
One great quote: "Historical knowledge is the reenactment of a past thought encapsulated in a context to present thoughts, which in contradicting it confine it to a plane different from theirs".
Another one: "If you have simultaneously Economic volatility, Ethnic disintegration and Empires in decline, then the probability of a high level of organized lethal violence is significant."
Highly highly recommended viewing including the spicy Q&A.